The Cut — May 4, 2026 — Four Roses Sets a Lottery Demand Record — Act Before Tuesday | The Cut

Target runtime: 7:48 Word count: ~1,180 Estimated runtime: 7:55 Source: The Cut Daily 2026-05-04 (NEW structure — sourced from AWIB Opening Pour + Flight teaser convention)

—

This is The Cut. American whiskey, daily.

Forty-four to one. Check your inbox. Four Roses Single Barrel Collection lottery notifications hit Ohio, Virginia, and Pennsylvania inboxes this morning — the state system’s highest-ever demand ratio for this series. Claim your pick within 72 hours. National specialty retail closes Tuesday.

I’m John from Chasing the Unicorn Podcast. Here’s what moved today. May 4, 2026.

Today’s Big Move — Four Roses Single Barrel Collection just set a state-system demand record, and the clock is already running. Here’s what happened.

Winner notifications landed in Ohio OHLQ, Virginia VABC, and Pennsylvania PLCB inboxes this morning — 8:15, 9:00, and 9:45 Eastern. If you entered any of those systems, your confirmation window is typically 72 hours. Don’t let it close on you.

The demand numbers are worth understanding. Ohio logged 18,400 registered entries for 412 available bottles across three expressions. That’s 44.7-to-1 — the highest demand ratio Ohio’s system has ever recorded for a Single Barrel Collection release. Last year’s rotation came in at 38.2-to-1. This one topped it by more than six points.

Three expressions, all from Cox’s Creek Distillery’s middle-floor rickhouse positions. OESQ at 110.2 proof: dried apricot, cracked pepper, toasted oak, dried cherry in the mid-palate. OESF at 112.4 proof: dark cherry, chocolate, anise, and a long black-pepper finish — historically the fastest to move to secondary. OBSK at 107.6 proof: caramel, light floral, baked stone fruit, approachable and round. If you’re buying the Collection for the first time, OBSK is the smarter start, even though secondary consistently undervalues it.

The new transparency element this rotation: Four Roses prints not only the recipe code on every winning bottle’s label but also the warehouse and exact rick number. The 2026 release is the most production-transparent allocated bourbon currently in market.

As of midmorning, Seelbach’s 340-bottle online allocation was gone in 90 minutes. Total Wine is running 2 to 8 bottles per expression per store. National specialty retail is expected to sell through by Tuesday end of business.

Lottery winner — act today, not tomorrow. Everyone else — $79.99 MSRP is the window closing Tuesday; $120 to $175 secondary follows the week of May 11. Both are real paths. Only one is the better deal. Today’s First Sip gets into the science behind why some bottles are priced the way they are — and it starts with something distillers call the angel’s share.

Today’s First Sip — the angel’s share. You’ll see it referenced on Garrison Brothers Cowboy Bourbon 2026 this week, and it explains the price tag better than anything on the label does.

So here’s what it is.

Every barrel of bourbon loses liquid over time. Heat expands the wood, cold contracts it, and liquid evaporates through the oak year after year. Distillers call that evaporation the angel’s share. In Kentucky, a barrel loses roughly 3 to 5 percent of its volume every year.

In Texas, the math is different. Garrison Brothers’ Hill Country barrels reach 110+ degrees in summer and drop near freezing in winter. That extreme swing drives annual evaporation losses of 10 to 12 percent — two to three times Kentucky’s rate. A barrel starting at 53 gallons can lose roughly half its liquid over seven years. Garrison has to fill substantially more starting volume to match a comparable Kentucky seven-year program’s yield.

That’s the trade. Evaporation concentrates flavor as water and alcohol leave at slightly different rates and the wood contributes more of itself to what remains. But it also burns off inventory, and that’s a direct reason a Texas seven-year sits above a Kentucky seven-year on the price tag. The angels were working harder in the Hill Country.

What this changes — when you see a Texas bottle priced significantly above a comparable Kentucky age statement, climate math usually explains most of the gap. You’re paying for what’s left after the angels took their cut. Which brings us to today’s Chase — and the bottle where the math is working in your favor right now.

Today’s Chase — three bottles across three tiers. The spotlight sits in the under-$80 range, and the window is 72 hours or less. Let’s start with the one that matters most.

Four Roses Single Barrel Collection 2026. Under $80 — $79.99 MSRP per expression.

Two expressions worth knowing. OESF at 112.4 proof: dark cherry, dark chocolate, anise, and a long black-pepper close. The community’s first pick for secondary velocity. OBSK at 107.6 proof: caramel, light floral, baked stone fruit, round and approachable. The smarter buy for drinkers.

Here’s why it’s the spotlight. Both expressions sit at $79.99 against a First Rotation comparable secondary floor of $120 to $175. The demand signal documented this morning — 44.7-to-1, the highest ever recorded for this series — is the clearest value argument the numbers will give you. National specialty retail closes Tuesday. Secondary opens the week of May 11. That’s roughly a 14-day window between the last MSRP opportunity and the first secondary transaction.

This is worth the chase. Lottery winners, check your inbox now. Everyone else: Total Wine, Seelbach’s, Binny’s, and participating specialty retailers — stock is moving fast.

Also on today’s Chase — Michter’s US★1 Barrel Strength Sour Mash Batch 25S1, confirmed Monday at 116.2 proof and $119.99 SRP in the $80-to-$200 range. Fort Nelson distillery walk-up Thursday at 11am — 380 bottles, MSRP, no lottery. If you’re within driving distance of Louisville, Thursday is the play. National launch follows the week of May 11. And at $34.99, TX Blended Whiskey from Firestone & Robertson is a low-stakes entry into the Texas whiskey category before you commit to the cask-strength tier. Full detail in today’s Cut Daily.

Which brings us to today’s Bar Talk — does a higher proof number actually mean better whiskey?

Today’s Bar Talk — proof escalation as quality signal or market psychology. Community’s split on whether Michter’s 116.2 print is a genuine craft statement or a number that prices itself. Here’s what’s actually going on.

Monday’s press release confirmed Barrel Strength Batch 25S1 at 116.2 proof — the highest print in the series’ four-year history. The skeptics have a fair point: barrel-exit proof is partly determined by conditions outside direct distillery control — rickhouse floor placement, seasonal temperature variation, evaporation rate across the aging cycle. That part is accurate.

But barrel selection is entirely a craft choice. Michter’s Master Distiller Willie Pratt’s individual-barrel selection methodology is publicly documented. The proof is a result of selection, not the target. Michter’s chose those barrels. They happened to exit at 116.2.

The math is what’s most useful here. Series proof trajectory: Batch 22S1 at 109.0, Batch 23S1 at 111.2, Batch 24S1 at 113.6, Batch 25S1 at 116.2 — average 2.4-point increase per release across four years. Secondary market has treated each increase as a floor-raising event. Whether 116.2 means better-integrated whiskey than 113.6 is a question first tasting notes will answer the week of May 11. Whether it means a higher secondary floor is already answered — empirically, yes.

What this means for the rest of us — buy at $119.99 MSRP because the series is legitimate. Not because the proof went up.

And one more thing before we close. Today’s AWIB on Patreon has the full Flight comparison — Garrison Brothers Cowboy 2026 versus Balcones True Blue Cask Strength, side by side, with the verdict on which one wins for which kind of bourbon-curious drinker. If you’re trying to decide between the two Texas barrel-proof releases that landed this week, that’s the read. Patreon link in the show notes.

That’s The Cut for May 4, 2026. I’m John. Drink something interesting.

—